Deleveraging on sovereign bonds and the dollar: what’s next?

Posted on 19. May, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | 0 comments

Two major investment bubbles have landed since mid-April 2015: investors rushed to exit herding positions on long bonds and long dollar. For example, Bund yields increased by 60 bps and EUR/USD rose by 6% in a single month.
Both bubbles have moved in synch since 2011 and convey investors’ anticipations of a deflationary trend. The major [...]

The correction in the Risk Balanced strategy portends more attractive returns for the future

Posted on 11. May, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

Since the end of April, a significant correction has hit bonds and equities markets altogether, a feature of financial deleveraging. As a matter of fact, Riskelia Fund has been declining 0.5% since the start of May and about 2.5% from the high reached on April 15th (the max drawdown of the fund being 3.5% from [...]

The herds are rushing to the exit on the dollar and the bonds

Posted on 05. May, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

Last week financial markets were driven by behavioral dynamics rather than fundamentals. As showed in figure 1, the most significant moves were the euro zone bonds tumble occurring simultaneously with the sharp rebound of the EUR currency vs. USD and JPY. Both markets were rated with giant bubbles of more than 90% on a scale [...]

Global Balanced portfolios and currency effect

Posted on 28. Apr, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

The dollar rise since the beginning of the year (in particular vs. the euro) has had a major impact on assets performance in euro and dollar terms. For instance, Figure 1 shows that the performance of worldwide equities has mainly reflected the 10% rise of the dollar vs. the euro. As a matter of fact, [...]

Anatomy of correlations: the most and least diversifying assets

Posted on 23. Apr, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

The level of financial markets integration (interconnection between financial assets), estimated from the proportion of risk explained by a common risk factor, has stabilized to low levels since mid-2014 (figure 1).

Three distinct assets categories clearly stand out on the map of financial assets traded in Riskelia Fund (Figure 2):

Safe haven bonds (i.e. sovereign US, UK, [...]

Is long/short better than long only in tactical asset allocation? A hands-on experiment

Posted on 09. Apr, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

April 9, 2015

Some investors and customers ask us why we have designed a long only tactical asset allocation model in Riskelia Fund.

The typical remark is: “If you can successfully hedge the portfolio against market downturn, why not simply short the market?” This statement seems obvious as a long/short investment process is often perceived as more [...]

Designing profitable “risk off” portfolios

Posted on 31. Mar, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

Overlay strategies, intended to hedge portfolio exposed to risky assets (equities, high yield and emerging bonds), have attracted a lot of attention among institutional investors. Volatility strategies such as combinations of long put and short call positions are widely used for example.

The purpose of this note is to explore two types of systematic strategies based [...]

Don’t fear a crash in bonds (especially in the US & UK)

Posted on 25. Mar, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

As Nobel Prize Robert Shiller puts it, many investors are worried about a looming crash in the bonds market, which would be provoked by sequential increases in the US short term rates by the Federal Reserve.

The analysis of the long term history of bonds markets enables to dismiss such scenario. The selected benchmark (US Barclays [...]

When will the dollar rise have a break?

Posted on 16. Mar, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | 1 comment

The dollar index has been rising more than 10% since the beginning of 2015 and 26% over the last twelve months. The year on year increase of the dollar index has never been so high since the beginning of the 1980’s. According to Riskelia’s Radar perspective, the bubble of the dollar reaches an extreme level [...]

A pause in US financial reflation: tapering reloaded?

Posted on 10. Mar, 2015 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus | Comments Off

March 10, 2015

Since the end of 2013 we have been an advocate for risk balanced strategies to capture what we call a state of “financial reflation”, a situation where equities, bonds and commodity-related assets may raise simultaneously. Since 2014, such strategy rose around 20% before fees with volatility below 10%.

The passive risk balanced strategy has [...]