The big winner is moral hazard, the big loser may be the euro vs. gold

Posted on 25. Jul, 2011 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

The umpteenth euro bailout plan has been greeted by the markets as a major step towards financial stability but will certainly not be the last one as the structural debt issues have still not been addressed. The big winner of this dramatic mess is moral hazard whereas the big loser will probably be the euro [...]

How monetization fakes financial assets performance

Posted on 25. Jul, 2011 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

“The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support,” The Fed “remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment of monetary policy would be appropriate.”
While addressing to the congress, Bernanke has put forward a [...]

Discerning the good long-term bets from the bad ones

Posted on 13. Jul, 2011 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Although the financial integration is historically high as far as short-term asset returns are concerned, the long term trends of cyclical assets have shown very different patterns from 2010 onwards.
Averaging the trends over the past 18 months provides an interesting perspective on long-term asset dynamics, as this selects assets that have proved the most resilient [...]

Inflation vs. deflation: the puzzle goes on

Posted on 06. Jul, 2011 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Riskelia’s map of financial markets is an innovative visualization tool that provides an instantaneous snapshot of salient market trends and their interconnections.
In a first stage, the assets with high absolute recommendation (score) are selected. High score assets are then grouped by clusters to form salient market themes. The cross-theme relations are finally represented by means [...]