The French debt under attack

Posted on 25. Oct, 2011 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

In the last weeks, we have witnessed a significant deterioration in the French debt status as a safe haven as showed in figure 1. The spread of the French 5 years yield over Germany have widened much more quickly than the Italian one. The spread widening is occurring in a context of global rising yields, [...]

Improvement in oil and US equities but new worries on euro sovereign debt

Posted on 19. Oct, 2011 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

The latest rebound has been strong enough to modify the landscape of cyclical assets. In particular, the oil markets together with the US assets emerged as clear leaders, specifically the Nasdaq and other defensive sectors (Utilities and Consumer Staples). Meanwhile, the euro sovereign debt risk has deteriorated, specifically the French and Italian debts in the [...]

A new rift is emerging on the euro sovereign debt

Posted on 11. Oct, 2011 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

The euro sovereign debts dynamic is one of the keys to the euro crisis. The recent improvement in Ireland and Spain radar’s trends requires specific attention but the Italian solvency issue is now at the epicenter of the debt crisis. This giant weakness will have to be solved to prevent this sword of Damocles from [...]

Are commodities capitulating?

Posted on 04. Oct, 2011 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

The main event of the last two weeks is undoubtedly the shift of commodities trends into negative territory. The precious metals fell sharply two weeks ago whereas the grains tumbled last week. This broad base correction is closely related to the deterioration of the Chinese growth outlook as perceived in the Shanghai equities’ poor performance [...]