A Chinese metallic thorn in the bulls’ side

Posted on 27. Mar, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

The successive central banks interventions have improved the overall liquidity in the financial system. The banks’ funding is ample in the US and close to normal in Europe. The fluidity of transactions is reflected in the implied volatilities of equities, oil and carry trades (figure 1). A positive liquidity environment (characterized by a negative risk [...]

Buoyant risky assets, reversing safe haven bonds, lackluster dollar

Posted on 22. Mar, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

Figure 1 reports the tops and flops of the Radar since the start of the year. The good bets correspond to the assets which have displayed the most robust trends, materializing in steady upward or downward moves. The main investment themes of the year 2012 have been so far:

Cyclical assets with a particular emphasis on [...]

From deflation to inflation: the Central Banks’ world of extremes

Posted on 17. Mar, 2012 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

As central banks are literally flooding the world with liquidity (Figure 1), the Radar’s recommendations on oil and precious have surged by staggering 60% and 80% since the beginning of the year while the recommendations on grains and base metals have increased by a more modest 30% (Figure 2).

As shown in Figure 3, the EURJPY [...]

Increased diversification and de-risking of the EURUSD parity

Posted on 12. Mar, 2012 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

As reflected in figures 1 and 2, the global integration factor has subsided on several parts of the financial system. The global integration factor corresponds to the proportion of global asset prices variance explained by the first common risk factor. This decrease in integration translates better diversification prospects within the financial system. Besides, we can [...]

Some takeaways from the precious flash crash

Posted on 05. Mar, 2012 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

In an episode reminiscent of Sept 23, 2011, when the bullion quickly plunged by almost 6% for no particular reason, gold dropped over $100 intraday on Wednesday. This happened moments after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began testifying before Congress at 10 a.m. Wednesday. Almost immediately, prices on gold dropped more than 4%, silver prices [...]