Finding the trends in the shadows: the muddle through attractor

Posted on 24. Apr, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

We have highlighted several times the noisy state of the financial system which prevents investors from discerning genuine investment themes from capricious moves derived from the “risk on / risk off” alternator.

As showed by figure 1, the average of Riskelia’s trend indicator over the last year enables to spot structural positive and negative investment trends. [...]

The Eurozone woes resurface

Posted on 21. Apr, 2012 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

Two weeks ago, we warned against the eventuality of a recoupling between Spain and the other core Eurozone countries. Well, this is exactly what is currently happening… When looking at figures 1 to 3, we observe indeed that both from the equities and costs of risk sides, the markets have finally acknowledged the fact that [...]

Is it time to bury the trends?

Posted on 12. Apr, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

The main take-away from the start of the year is that very few assets experienced a sustained trend. Only 33% among the 125 assets scanned by our Radar have been winning bets, a poor performance which characterizes a very rangy environment deprived of significant macro themes. However, the quarterly performance from the successful bets largely [...]

The Spanish decoupling story: new paradigm or new fairy tale?

Posted on 04. Apr, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

Last week, we evoked the Chinese thorn in the bulls’ side. Today, we focus our attention to the second major dark spot in the financial landscape, namely the new bout of fever in Spain. One of the most puzzling evolutions of the recent weeks has been indeed the disconnection of Spain from other Eurozone core [...]