The consequences of the looming Chinese hard landing

Posted on 29. Jun, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

As we have already warned several months ago, Chinese equities are under increased pressure and base metals with them. As showed in figures 1 and 2, all the equities connected to the Chinese growth are going through a negative trend which conveys a bleak picture on Chinese growth. The lackluster outlook of the Chinese economy [...]

Catch the yield if you can

Posted on 19. Jun, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

juin 18, 2012

A map of global financial asset classes shows that fixed income assets are paving the whole territory, from safe havens to risky assets. As shown in figure 2, the interest rates part of bonds significantly hedges the credit part: the variation of 5 years yield is correlated at -0.65 to the variation of [...]

Commodities are (again) the eye of the storm

Posted on 13. Jun, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

Will the Spanish banks’ rescue package resolve the current market woes? This is not sure, as the Eurozone crisis is not any more the unique focus of investors’ attention and market indicators increasingly point to a gloomy outlook in the US and in emerging countries.

Riskelia has developed a synthetic indicator based on commodities’ forward curves [...]

Is gold turning back into a safe haven?

Posted on 05. Jun, 2012 by Riskelia in Weekly Focus

Last Friday’s price action may mark an important shift in the behavior of gold: while the S&P tumbled 2.5%, the yellow metal soared 3.7%, in a way reminiscent of the Aug 2011 behavior.

From figures 1 to 4, we deduce that there are two distinct modes in the relation of gold to equities:

Full-fledged liquidity crisis: gold [...]