Is there a scenario where Government yields significantly rise? Not so sure…

Posted on 25. Feb, 2013 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

As OECD Government yields are still near their lowest levels ever, it is mentally convenient to think that the only path is a rise in interest rates. By the same token, many analysts recommend borrowing money now since yields are expected to sharply increase in the future.

After 6 months of abundant liquidity and steady increase [...]

The intriguing commodities decoupling

Posted on 18. Feb, 2013 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Commodities are undoubtedly related to equities of commodities’ producers and commodity currencies. From a fundamental point of view, commodities’ producers own exploitable deposits of commodities which will be extracted and sold should commodities prices exceed the extraction cost. Hence, equities of commodities’ producers should trade like a call option on commodities. In the same token, [...]

Making the most of policy driven markets

Posted on 11. Feb, 2013 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Among the top Radar’s bets over the last 6 months, we can see four categories of assets:

Our prominent bets were related to the Japanese reflationary outlook. They consisted in shorting the yen vs. other currencies or purchasing Japanese stocks.

The second category includes commodities offering a good carry reward through an inverted curve: Gasoline & Lean [...]

Bubbles on High Yield and Emerging debts on the verge of bursting

Posted on 04. Feb, 2013 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

We raised an alert on growing mimetic buying behavior on high yield debts in November 2012. These insatiable flows towards risky debts were reflected in Riskelia’s bubble indicator above 60%. The bubble indicator scores the regularity of price moves over various time frames. When it is approaching 100% on specific assets, their prices dynamics are [...]