Is EUR/USD heading to 1.40?

Posted on 17. Feb, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

The outlook of the dollar has been indecisive since Mario Draghi’s pledge to “do whatever it takes to save the euro” and the subsequent announcement of the QE3 Federal Reserve program. For sure, the emerging currencies have been hardly hit but the euro has served too as a repatriation currency during market stresses.

As showed in [...]

Long Bonds and long Equities altogether

Posted on 10. Feb, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

As liquidity comes back to risk seeking territory (figure 3), equities are likely to rise again but surely less than in 2013.

Nevertheless, the uncertainties about the emerging countries’ outlook will weigh on financial markets and deteriorate the global economic outlook. As a matter of fact, Chinese authorities will maintain a tightening mode in liquidity so [...]

Playing the Eurozone disinflationary trend

Posted on 03. Feb, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

The current emerging markets rout happens at the worst moment for Europe. As Eurozone countries have made the choice to export their way out of debt, they have made themselves increasingly vulnerable to the growth prospects in emerging economies.

The ongoing landing of the Chinese credit bubble and the sudden stop experienced by emerging countries running [...]