The euro is not ready for a sell

Posted on 27. May, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

The EUR/USD was undoubtedly hit in the aftermath of Draghi’s pledge to react to low inflation and low growth conditions in the Eurozone, dropping from around 1.40 down to 1.3650.

As a matter of fact, Riskelia’ s trend indicator (figure 1) which had been hovering around a significant 60% value since 2013, fell in slight positive [...]

Time to fear the bubble on EU risky debts

Posted on 20. May, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

May 20, 2014

We had recommended long positions on EU sovereign debts on several key occasions since April 2013. Their trends have increasingly grown mature and our bubble indicators have significantly expanded since the start of 2014 onwards. All the most significant investment bubbles are now concentrated in the euro zone, either in peripheral or high [...]

Top successes of the Radar in 2014

Posted on 13. May, 2014 by Christophe Lerolle in Weekly Focus

What did we say in late 2013 and early 2014?
What happened so far?

On Nov 2013, we said that Italy and Spain rates would converge to the Eurozone core
Italy and Spain 10 years rates fell more than 100 bps to 2.90%, a record low

On Jan 2014, we questioned the consensual scenario of rising rates
US T Bonds [...]

Financial markets directionality and Global Macro opportunities

Posted on 05. May, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Markets directionality may be defined as the propensity of financial assets to trend.

To compute this directionality on a dynamic basis, we first compose a basket comprising an equal number of stocks indices, commodities, currencies and bonds futures. We then calculate, on this set of markets, the average absolute Sharpe Ratios over a three-month horizon. We [...]