When Chinese stocks wake up…

Posted on 28. Jul, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

In a recent interview, Jeff Gundlach, the founder of the giant bond investment manager Double Line, encouraged us to look at the chart of the Shanghai Composite: “it keeps putting in lower highs but, in the last 18 months, it’s also putting in higher lows. So it’s forming a pennant formation. It will be interesting [...]

Why is the euro starting to trend lower?

Posted on 22. Jul, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

We have anticipated the euro’s strength for more than a year against the consensus.
The main forces behind the euro’s strength are still at work:

Current account in the Eurozone is still progressing due to uncooperative and simultaneous policies of competitiveness. The Eurozone current account is nearing 3% of GDP, implying recurrent repatriation of foreign currencies by [...]

Are we reaching a turning point of the supply/demand cycle of base metals?

Posted on 08. Jul, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

Since 2014, we have stated a disconnection between base metals. Copper and aluminum used to lag behind zinc and nickel. Zinc and nickel rose because of supply constraints. Closures of zinc mines and the Indonesia export ban of unprocessed nickel implied the rise of zinc and nickel.
Now that aluminum and copper have started to follow [...]

Are precious metals getting more precious?

Posted on 02. Jul, 2014 by Jean Jacques Ohana in Weekly Focus

The dynamic of the gold’s constellation has considerably improved over last weeks. The trend indicators of gold, silver, palladium, platinum and gold miners are represented in figure 1. All of these markets have at least a correlation of 50% to gold and many of them have actually led gold in the rally.
Following geopolitical tensions with [...]