The breakdown of oil to gas relationship

Posted on 22. mar, 2010 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

From 1998 to Jan 2009, oil and natural gas long term prices have moved more or less in tandem. Heating oil and natural gas are indeed substitutes in electricity generation and certain industrial uses, which induces fuel switching and price correlation in the short or medium terms. Yet, since January 2009, natural gas prices have [...]

Does oil respond to speculation or fundamentals?

Posted on 17. mar, 2010 by Steve Ohana in Weekly Focus

The energy complex seems to go through a highly interesting new period accumulating several bullish signs. From the beginning of 2009 onwards, the oil curve has been flattening consistently, meaning that the harm inflicted by the contango to long investors has considerably decreased over time as exhibited in the chart below:

Sources : Bloomberg, Riskelia’s estimates, the [...]